CNBC TV18
By Anand Singha
Published Jan 17, 2024
Population Decline: China's population fell for the second consecutive year in 2023, with a decrease of 2.08 million, or 0.15%, reaching 1.409 billion.
The decline accelerated due to a record low birth rate and COVID-19 deaths after strict lockdowns were lifted.
COVID-19 Impact: A nationwide COVID-19 surge in 2023 contributed to a 6.6% increase in total deaths (11.1 million), with the death rate reaching the highest level since 1974 during the Cultural Revolution.
Birth Rate: New births fell by 5.7% to 9.02 million, resulting in a record low birth rate of 6.39 births per 1,000 people in 2023, down from 6.77 in 2022.
Demographic Shifts: The decline in births is linked to decades of plummeting birth rates due to the one-child policy (1980-2015) and rapid urbanisation, where having children in cities is more expensive.
Economic Factors: Youth unemployment hit record highs, white-collar worker wages fell, and a property sector crisis intensified, further dampening the desire for childbirth in 2023.
Economic Impact: Concerns arise about China's economic growth as the diminishing workforce and consumer base, coupled with rising costs of elderly care, strain local governments.
Global Population Ranking: India surpassed China as the world's most populous nation in 2023, leading to debates about relocating supply chains from China to other markets.
Long-term Population Projections: U.N. experts predict China's population to shrink by 109 million by 2050, more than triple their previous forecast in 2019.
Aging Population: In 2023, China's population aged 60 and over reached 296.97 million (21.1% of the total), with expectations to exceed 400 million by 2035.
Pension System Challenges: The Chinese Academy of Sciences predicts the pension system running out of money by 2035, posing financial challenges for the aging population.
Social and Economic Pressures: High childcare and education costs, job market uncertainties, gender discrimination, and traditional family expectations contribute to reluctance in having children.
Government Measures: Local governments have introduced various measures to encourage childbirth, including tax deductions, longer maternity leave, and housing subsidies. However, implementation challenges persist.