By Vivek Dubey
CNBC-TV18.com
Published June 20, 2024
India has seen 20% below normal rainfall since June 1, with overall June precipitation also expected to be subpar, per the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The monsoon hit mainland India two days early, but made no progress between June 12 and 18, extending the heatwave in north India.
Conditions now favour the monsoon advancing into Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, and Jharkhand in the next few days.
From June 1-18, rainfall was 20% below normal, with the northwest receiving 70% less, central India 31% less, and the south peninsula 16% more than average.
The southwest monsoon reached Nicobar Islands on May 19, Kerala and northeastern states by May 30, aided by Cyclone Remal.
By June 12, the monsoon covered Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, southern Maharashtra, and some parts of southern Chhattisgarh and Odisha.
As of June 18, the northern limit of the monsoon was fixed at Navsari, Jalgaon, Amravati, Chandrapur, Bijapur, Sukma, Malkangiri, and Vizianagaram.
Between June 1-18, 11 meteorological sub-divisions received normal to excess rainfall, while 25 experienced deficient to large deficient rainfall.
June is likely to see below-normal rainfall (less than 92% of LPA), with the southern peninsula and parts of northeast India expected to fare better.
India's core monsoon zone, crucial for rain-fed agriculture, is predicted to receive above-normal rainfall this season, boosting crop prospects.
Reservoirs are at 22% capacity amid heatwaves. El Nino, causing weaker monsoon winds, may transition to La Nina by August-September, improving rainfall.