MONEY CONTROL NEWS JUNE 6, 2024
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One of the big takeaways of the Lok Sabha election result was the BJP's average performance in the Hindi heartland region, which had given the party an overwhelming mandate in 2019. In the 2024 election, BJP won 127 out of the 225 seats in the Hindi heartland states. This is a loss of 50 seats compared to 2019.
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The Hindi heartland states include Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Delhi, Chhattisgarh, Bihar and Jharkhand. In 2019, BJP's winning strike rate in these states was 78%. This fell to 56% in 2024.
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BJP's failure to convert the fulfilment of Ram Mandir promise into votes significantly hurt the party in Uttar Pradesh, which sends 80 members to the Lok Sabha. The BJP's seat share dropped dramatically from 62 in 2019 to just 33 in 2024.
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The saffron party's sub-par performance in UP can be attributed to a combination of factors, such as infighting, lack of support from caste-based allies and the winning jodi of Akhilesh Yadav & Rahul Gandhi. Local issues taking precedence over the temple plank and the choice of candidates in certain seats may have also led to BJP's downslide in UP.
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In Rajasthan, BJP's tally dropped by 10 seats and Congress gained 8 seats. Congress's froming alliances with RLP and BAP worked for them. For BJP, the absence of strong local leadership and lack of participation from Vasundhara Raje led to the erosion of seats. Jat resentment, farmer anger and unemployment fueled hate against BJP in Haryana, resulting in 5 seats lost vis-a-vis 2019.
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Despite setbacks in some heartland states, BJP managed to hold fort in several others, such as Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Jharkhand and Bihar.
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In Madhya Pradesh, BJP made a clean sweep this time, winning all 29 seats. Former MP CM Shivraj Chouhan, who was contesting from Vidisha, led from the front after winning by a stunning margin of 8.2 lakh votes. The party clearly managed to build on the success from the 2023 assembly poll victory.
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In Delhi, where BJP faced a joint challenge from AAP and Congress, the voters decisively ruled in favour of the saffron party for a third time in a row. Modi factor and pre-election setbacks for AAP helped BJP retain all 7 seats again.
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Similarly, BJP made a clean sweep again in the hill states of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand while repeating past success in Chhattisgarh. In Jharkhand, it lost two seats but is still commandingly ahead of INDIA bloc.