Morgan Stanley takes stock of the nine Modi years in India

Published by: Vivek Dubey

“In a short span of 10 years, India has gained positions in the world order with significant positive consequences for the macro and market outlook,” Morgan Stanley said in its report.

Let’s take a look at the top changes highlighted by the global investment bank:

Supply-side Policy Reforms

Corporate tax rate at 15% is now at par with other peer economies like China, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia.

#1

Infra construction has sped up

Highway construction has more than doubled, broadband user base is up 13 times, renewable power capacity is up 4 times, Railway routes electrified is up 7 times.

#2

All data: 2015-23 compared to 2006-14

Formalisation of the Economy

GST collections are growing at about 6.7% (avg of preceding 12 months) at the end of April compared to near 6% before the pandemic.

#3

Digitisation of the Economy 

Digital transactions are now 76.1% of India’s gross domestic product (GDP).

#4

Real Estate is booming again

Both new launches and sales scaled new record highs in each of the last four quarters.

#5

Social schemes

Direct cash transfers have grown manifold: about Rs 2.5 lakh crore transferred across 250 schemes in FY23.

#6

Social schemes where there is no cash transfer

The no of ‘In kind’ schemes have barely changed since FY18 but the value of benefits transferred is nearly Rs 4 lakh crore.

#7

Cleaner banks, healthier companies

Bad loans as part of all bank loans hit a 12-year low in Sep 2022. Corporate debt as a proportion of GDP may be down to 50% in FY23.

#8

Inflation under control

Inflation in India has been largely under control despite the runaway trend seen globally.

#9

Flexible inflation targeting

Has allowed RBI to hike rates by 250 basis points when the Fed had to raise it by 500 basis points.

#10

India is drawing more foreign direct investment 

The avg flows of preceding five years has shown a steady rise since 2005.

#11

Hot money flow has slowed down significantly in recent years

The avg flows of preceding five years has shown a steady rise since 2005.

#12

Smaller investors are still buying equity mutual funds

SIP flows (the avg of preceding 12 months) continues to scale new highs even when domestic mutual fund flows have fallen in recent months.

#13

Government Support for Corporate Profits

Earnings growth are still slower than the nominal GDP growth showing room for improvement.

#14

Multinationals are now more bullish on India than China

The sentiment score in favour of India is still high, despite the fall in the last few quarters.

#15

India’s services exports are booming

At 4.9%, India’s market share in global services exports was at an all-time high, as of Dec 2022.

#16