By Vijay Anand
CNBC-TV18.com
Published Sept 5, 2024
2024 Prediction: Allan Lichtman, a US historian, has predicted that the 2024 presidential election will go the Democrats' way, with Vice President Kamala Harris becoming "an unprecedented president".
Why does his prediction matter? Lichtman has correctly predicted the winner in 9 of the last 10 elections, a feat for which he has been dubbed the "Nostradamus of US Presidential Elections". He only got it wrong in 2000, when he predicted an Al Gore victory (George W Bush was elected president in a close-run, much-litigated election).
How does he pick his winner? Lichtman's prediction is grounded in a method involving 13 keys, or “big picture true/false questions,” which assess the strength and performance of the incumbent party.
2024 prediction: According to Lichtman's methodology, eight keys favour Harris, while five favour Trump.
Potential wildcards: Lichtman said foreign policy could influence the outcomes of the keys. He highlights the Biden administration’s involvement in the Gaza conflict. However, even if both foreign policy keys were to flip against Harris, Lichtman argues that Trump would still not have enough to win.
“Foreign policy is tricky, and these keys could flip,” Lichtman said in a video posted by The New York Times. “The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza, which is a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight. But even if both foreign policy keys flipped false, (it) would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House.”